This presentation by Vitaliy Katsenelson on the bear case for China is well worth a look. Seems as though the goldilocks crowd have convinced almost everyone on the planet that all is well. Stock are up almost 10% in the last 6 weeks. As a contrarian I feel very lonely in the bear camp. That is always a great sign. I am bearish China, Australian dollar (as a proxy for global growth), stocks, real estate, industrial metals, bonds and all currencies relative to gold. I am most bullish about gold in AUD terms, it is still 40% off its all time high of November 2008 and if China sneezes the Australian dollar will have pneumonia. Enjoy the presentation and consider that a few big Wall St names (namely Jim Chanos and George Soros are very bearish China).

China - The Mother of All Black Swans by Vitaliy Katsenelson - April 2010